DAP predicts southern storm

The Rocket predicted that Pakatan would score its biggest win in Johor, winning nine out of 26 parliamentary seats in the southern-most state.

GEORGE TOWN: The DAP media organ ‘The Rocket’ has predicted Pakatan Rakyat to win up to 15 parliamentary seats with an equal fighting chance to wrest away eight more in the southern belt of Peninsular Malaysia in the next general election.

The DAP mouthpiece’s latest September edition forecasts that Pakatan can considerably increase its parliamentary tally in southern states of Negeri Sembilan, Malacca and Johor, which are now under Barisan Nasional’s control, boosting its chances to capture Putrajaya.

Currently Pakatan only has one federal seat each in Johor and Malacca, and three in Negeri Sembilan.

Of the three southern states, The Rocket predicted that Pakatan would score its biggest win in Johor.

It forecasts Pakatan to win nine out of 26 parliamentary seats in the southern-most state.

The three-page election analysis forecasts federal seats of Segamat, Labis, Ledang, Muar, Batu Pahat, Kluang, Gelang Patah and Kulai to fall to Pakatan.

It expects the DAP to retain Bakri. Current Bakri MP is Er Tech Hwa.

Titled – “Election Analysis: Southern Storm”, the article speculated that Johor Baru, Tanjung Piai, Pulai, Pasir Gudang, Simpang Renggam and Parit Sulong were dicey seats for BN.

Its writer, former Umno assemblyman for Pulau Manis, Mohd Ariff Sabri Abdul Aziz speculated that a nine to 32 per cent vote swing towards Pakatan would actualise the forecast.

After the 13th general election, he claimed “Johor would no longer be Umno’s bastion.”

In the last general election in 2008, there was a 14 percent swing towards the opposition and The Rocket speculated the support for Pakatan to grow stronger in the next polls.

Mohd Ariff claimed that Johor Menteri Besar Abdul Ghani Othman, perturbed by the pro-Pakatan upswing, had apparently told Umno division leaders recently that some nine federal and 16 state seats could fall in the next election.

He said Pakatan would have the edge in Johor Baru if incumbent MP Shahrir Samad decided to retire.

Four seats winnable in Negeri Sembilan
In Negeri Sembilan, The Rocket forecasts Pakatan to win Rasah, Seremban, Telok Kemang and Rembau, currently held by Umno national youth chief Khairy Jamalauddin.

The article speculates Khairy not to seek re-election in Rembau this time.

Currently Pakatan holds Rasah and Seremban (both DAP), and Telok Kemang (PKR) out of eight federal seats in Negeri Sembilan.

The state’s other federal seats are Jelebu, Jempol, Kuala Pilah and Tampin.

In Malacca, The Rocket believes Pakatan can retain its sole parliamentary seat in Kota Melaka via DAP and add one more through PKR in Bukit Katil.

PKR youth wing chief Shamsul Iskandar Mat Akin, a Malaccan, has been speculated to contest Bukit Katil, considered as Barisan Nasional fortress.

He lost in Dungun federal seat in Terengganu in the 2008 general election.

Ali Rustam could lose
However, writer Mohd Ariff, now a DAP member suggested that former deputy prime minister Ghafar Baba’s son Tamrin would be a better strategic choice give to his previous stint as the area MP.

Bukit Katil has four state seats of Bachang, Ayer Keroh, Bukit Baru and Ayer Molek. DAP currently holds Bachang and Ayer Keroh while BN has the other two.

Bukit Baru incumbent assemblyman Malacca Chief Minister Mohd Ali Rustam won in 2008 with 2,708-vote majority. The 13,000-voter seat has 60 percent Malays and 40 percent non-Malays.

Mohd Ariff predicted the chief minister to bite the dust in his own den if Pakatan candidate could secure 80 percent non-Malay votes and 30 percent Malay votes.

The article predicted that Pakatan had fighting chance in Jasin and Tangga Batu federal seats and called on the opposition coalition to intensify its efforts in Alor Gajah.

The sixth and remaining federal seat Masjid Tanah is considered out of reach of Pakatan.