GE13 will be referendum on CMs

Whether these chief ministers will succeed in their re-election bid will depend on how they can overcome issues at the constituency level.

COMMENT

If Umno-Barisan Nasional fares poorly in Penang in the coming 13th general election, it will be mainly due to its inability to challenge the DAP’s popular Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng and not necessarily because of the BN government’s failures in managing the economy or maintaining internal security.

Given the voter fixation with state issues and chief ministers, national issues have become rather irrelevant in this upcoming polls.

Altantuyaa Shaariibuu, Scorpene submarines and Shahrizat Abdul Jalil’s RM250 million “lembu” episode and price rise on food items which opposition Pakatan Rakyat had hoped to raise in this election in a big way seems to have failed to take off.

Why, you may ask? Because the 13th general election has become a virtual referendum on the performance of the chief ministers.

Currently, four states are helmed by chief ministers – Malacca, Penang, Sabah and Sarawak.

Sarawak, of course, has already had its state election last April and Taib Mahmud is back in his seat as chief minister for the fourth term. He will keep a tight grip on at least 25 parliamentary seats which he “controls”. Sarawak has 31 parliamentary seats.

Whether these chief ministers will succeed in their re-election bid will depend on how they can overcome issues at the constituency level.

But incumbent leaders do have an edge over others in their states.

My believe is that the “war” this time will be less about parties and more about the leaders.

Much of this view hinges on the fact that many Malaysian voters have begun choosing governments not on the basis of party ideology and long-prevailing preferences but on specific party leaders.

This trend has become more obvious with an increasing number of young people emerging as a major voting bloc.

Leaders must have own profile

In general, party loyalty and party identification among the youth is weaker compared with older Malaysian voters.

In which case Penang, Malacca and Sabah will be turned into a sort of referendum on the performance of the chief ministers.

People are craving for leaders who are honest, easily accessible and have a strong, pro-rural and pro-people orientation.

Incumbent chief ministers of the latest poll-bound states don’t necessarily have all these qualities. Yet, overall, they have performed remarkably well on these attributes; this is what makes it difficult for their challengers.

Take, for instance, Malacca Chief Minister Mohd Ali Rustam. He was barred from contesting in the Umno elections after the party’s disiplinary board found him guilty of violating party ethics for indulging in money politics.

Mohd Ali was aiming to contest the post of deputy president (which Muhyiddin Yassin now holds).

But he still remains as the Malacca Chief Minister. In the past, it was only national leaders such as Dr Mahathir Mohamad, Anwar Ibrahim, and some regional icons such as Musa Aman, Pairin Joseph Kitingan and Taib, who had the magnetism to win on their sheer personal strength.

But today, a number of chief ministers, such as Musa and Lim have acquired this larger-than-party persona.

What is interesting to note is that all these chief ministers have emerged mainly due to their pro-development agenda.

Most of them have implemented welfare-oriented and populist programmes to woo the electorate.

Financial assistance schemes targeting the poor as well as rapid strides in basic infrastructure have all been priorities for the respective chief ministers.

These smart chief ministers have found a way of potentially overcoming the dreaded anti-incumbency factor so prevalent in Malaysian elections.

What this suggests is that parties ought to announce leaders in every state, especially those in the opposition, and let these leaders build up a profile.

Selvaraja Somiah is a geologist and freelance writer. He blogs at selvarajasomiah.wordpress.com