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Thursday, August 21, 2014

Even if snap polls called, Pakatan will STILL RETAIN Selangor: But PAS & Khalid may lose seats

Even if snap polls called, Pakatan will STILL RETAIN S'gor: But PAS & Khalid may lose seats
KUALA LUMPUR - Pakatan Rakyat (PR) will pay a price in lost seats should its self-inflicted mentri besar crisis lead to a Selangor election, but political analysts project that it will scrape by with enough to keep hold of the state.
With Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim said to be weighing the dissolution of the state assembly to resolve PR’s bid to remove him, the pact may be forced to face an electorate unimpressed with the political intrigue involved in unseating the mentri besar.
It is an “anger” that one analyst said may see the pact lose its recently won dominance over the state assembly, though not to the extent that will completely reverse its Election 2013 win.
“It’s not going to cost them Selangor. It’s going to cost them two-thirds majority maybe,” Prof Dr Jayum A. Jawan from Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM) told Malay Mail Online when contacted this week.
Citing PR’s haul of 44 seats out of Selangor’s 56-seat assembly, Jayum said the pact’s overwhelming majority was a “strong indicator” of the voters’ acceptance
He predicted that PR would comfortably win a simple majority, with most of the losses occurring in PAS-held constituencies.
The Selangor mentri besar saga was prolonged after PAS initially departed from an agreement with allies PKR and DAP, and backed Khalid to stay on.
It then delayed deciding on its position until last Sunday, giving Khalid enough room to commandeer the administration by removing hostile PKR and DAP officials.
Wan Saiful Wan Jan, chief executive of the Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs think tank, also forecast a PR victory in Selangor but with a “significantly reduced” majority.
But he attributed the pact’s survival to the shortcomings of Barisan Nasional (BN) and its lynchpin Umno in the state, rather than the voters’ endorsement of its merits.
“They must realise that even if they do win Selangor, it’s not necessarily because they’re strong, but because Umno is in a disarray,” he told Malay Mail Online today in a phone conversation, adding that many voters will feel that this snap polls is “unnecessary”.
Ibrahim Suffian, who heads independent pollster Merdeka Center, said only a complete breakdown in co-operation among the three PR parties would see the pact cede Selangor; otherwise, it should still win albeit with fewer seats.
Although he acknowledged that PR supporters would be “affected” by the near-scare where PAS previously appeared to be on the verge of quitting the partnership, he said the “core support is still intact”.
“Majority are still wary of BN,” Suffian told Malay Mail Online when contacted, saying that there was still a strong anti-BN and anti-Umno sentiment among voters.
But Jayum disagreed that PR would ride to victory on anti-Umno sentiments, saying that Selangor voters’ support for the pact was rooted in a desire for change.
Dr Lim Teck Ghee, the Centre for Policy Initiatives (CPI) director, presented an optimistic outlook for PR’s prospects in a snap polls by pointing to Umno’s alleged unreadiness and the apparent resolution of PR’s internal squabbles over Khalid’s position.
“Little doubt that Pakatan will retain and may even enhance its majority if this (a state election) happens, as Pakatan has now put its house in order,” he in an email reply to Malay Mail Online.
Jayum similarly said the Selangor crisis was merely a “family quarrel” within PR, saying that the three parties’ success in “amicably” settling the apparent deadlock would be viewed in the pact’s favour.
On Sunday, all three PR parties finally settled on selecting PKR president Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail as its sole candidate to replace Khalid, bringing an end to their protracted dispute over who should take over the position.
Khalid subsequently said that he will heed the Sultan’s advice to seek his audience upon the state ruler’s return to Malaysia — set for August 27, adding that he will continue his duties with his remaining four state executive councillors to ensure the smooth running of Selangor. -Malay Mail

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