DEJA-VU M'SIA: Economic crisis beckons as in 1997 as Umno govt again tries to jail Anwar

After a gruelling eight days of submissions, Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim’s Sodomy appeal ended with the jury postponing its verdict. Most people had thought that a verdict would have been reached and set to be delivered on the last day of deliberation, but it was indefinitely postponed. Can they actually do that?

Then there arose speculation that arch rival Prime Minister Najib Razak was waiting for the Umno general assembly to be safely past before giving the nod for the verdict to be announced? Strange? But this is how life is like in Malaysia where the ruling Umno party calls the political shots in the country.

Anyway, the Umno assembly has roared in and roared out, and Malaysians are now waiting for the courts to fix a day. Many expect it to be soon, 'before the year ends for sure' they happily reply when I checked around.

Personally, I am not too sure about that. But the one thing I can say is that Anwar’s fate is going to affect the nation. Whether he goes free or goes to jail, there will be adverse effects on the political direction of this country. Neither option is going to ease the pressure on UMNO and BN.

Najib will have his plate full trying to tackle the economic meltdown if oil price keeps crumbling. Some even say he may not survive as PM and 2015 will see a new man installed, either his cousin Hishammuddin Hussein or the brash racial slurs-spitting Home Minister, Zahid Hamidi. For sure, jailing Anwar won't help Najib stave off a Mahathir co-ordinated ouster one bit. It might be wiser and more 'useful' for saving Najib's political skin to keep Anwar active in the Opposition.

As in 1997-1998, Malaysia is now sitting on the brink of a major economic collapse. Some doomsayers predict an even worse plunge than the George Soros-Mahathir Mohamad titanic currency battle that saw our Ringgit literally free-fall. At its worst, I believe the Ringgit fell beyond RM4 to the US dollar. It was later fixed at 3.80 and kept improving through the years and just a few month back, as Bank Negara raised interest rates for the first time, it hit the 3.15 level. Sad to say, it has now fallen back to 3.43, the lowest in 5 years, and dealers are looking at an even worse 3.55-3.60. But will it stop there, what with the massive debt taken on by Najib through sovereign wealth fund 1MDB, which is said to stand at a monstrous RM42 billion. OMG! Don't laugh but we may go through a Hell even worse than the Asian Financial crisis!

Anyway I am no economist and will leave all that analysis and number-crunching to other worthier writers while I humbly restrain myself to the political and social aspects of Anwar's probable jailing.

Mahathir’s grand designs resting on Anwar’s fate?

The nagging question however remains; will Anwar’s acquittal have any effect on Tun Mahathir’s future plans and grand designs?

Contrary to popular belief, Mahathir is neither ailing or senile, nor fighting for time. After a successful heart surgery, the ex-Premier is up and running, strutting around like a ballet dancer, sharp witted and devious as usual. He is still in full control of his senses and delicately pulling the strings in UMNO.

Most people believe that if Anwar goes to jail, it will ricochet back on Najib Razak and the government, creating a tense situation with a people uprising, or worse dragging the government’s tattered reputation down even further.

But wouldn’t Anwar’s incarceration rid Mahathir of his biggest arch nemesis and political foe that has been a thorn to his outrageous scheming plots? With Anwar effectively behind bars and politically neutered, the invisible walls will crumble, leaving him free to bulldoze his immaculately planned objectives through, to have his offspring man the country one day.

With his immense wealth and resources, he is able to buy his way through the UMNO hierarchy, and the much needed support to ensure Muhkriz Mahathir is jettisoned to the top. With Anwar in jail, it would be easy pickings to go around Zahid Hamidi and Khairy Jamalludin who stands in the way.

However, if Anwar goes free, it may be Najib’s head on the chopping block and hasten Hishamuddin’s ambition to take his place, and perhaps Khairy in the DPM seat. But does Mahathir have the patience to see the peaceful new change of guard or will he spearhead a Muhkriz/Zahid combo to challenge the latter?

It also means that Zahid could take over as the new Prime Minister and Mukhriz as his deputy. Would Zahid have such luck? It wouldn’t be prudent to write him off as yet. With UMNO in turmoil and extremist NGOs turning on the heat, anything could happen as Zahid has not been exactly dormant.

Muhyiddin has just announced that he is not resigning anytime soon as the general elections are not anywhere near. So, he could be the wildcard to uproot Najib, as Najib is really walking on thin ice now.

But such a scenario could lead the Hishamuddin/Khairy faction teaming up with Pakatan Rakyat to form a unity government, which will be blow, Mahathir’s grand schemes wide open.

If Anwar is acquitted?

If Anwar Ibrahim goes free, it will be a game changer with the crippled PR pact gaining strength, and going on to capture more seats, which may even see a change in government that will effectively dampen Muhkriz’s high hopes.

With the 1MDB fiasco dragging Najib down and constantly hounded by extremist NGOs like Perkasa let loose by Mahathir, Najib should be counting his days. Everyone knows that Najib’s time is up, and he is hanging around on borrowed time waiting to be removed any day now.

With Hishamuddin likely to take his place, thus opening a slot for son Muhkriz to move up, Mathatir’s plan would fall nicely into place. Sooner or later, Muhkriz would have to face Khairy and Zahid head to head, but that would be another story.

Piling up the pressure

As the patron saint of Perkasa, it is hard to believe that Mahathir is not involved in the uncontrolled mushrooming of radical and extremist groups, with Isma and the ex CJ Hamid as the new trophies.

These NGOs who grossly misuses religion purportedly to defend the Malay race, religion and the Royalty, is systematically destroying the country’s stability, breaking down constitutional reforms just to advance the grand designs of one man.

Their latest attempts to demand that the voices of the core group of the majority race should be taken into account, bumiputras should not repay PTPTN loans, and that UMNO and PAS should join forces to protect Malay dominance are probably the sentiments of Mahathir, with him concluding that a single Malaysian identity isn’t possible for a multiracial nation like ours.

Many believe such groups were created to provide him the buffer against attempts to incriminate or investigate him for his crimes and the vast wealth accumulated through 22 years of near dictator rule. They also come in extra handy to voice out his distorted beliefs on his behalf.

Lately, these groups have voiced out his sentiments, which UMNO has tried very hard to avoid during the coming UMNO Annual Assembly on the 26thNovember. So, Mahathir’s absence during the convention wouldn’t make any difference and neither would he be sorely missed. His boycott will however put Najib in a very difficult position having to face UMNO delegates, knowing that he has lost precious support.

So, it is safe to say that Mahathir has been keeping up the pressure since day one that Najib took office, and the singular cause of Najib’s failed moderation policies like 1Malaysia and keeping to the middle path, and being effectively gagged from speaking out against racial and religious extremism running rampant in this country today.

It also shows that Mahathir is fighting a psychological war on many fronts with his pack of underdog NGOs in the forefront against enemies like Anwar, Hishamuddin, Khairy, Sharizat and some of the moderates in UMNO.

So if Anwar goes to jail, Najib slowly toppling over, dragging with him the likes of Hishamuddin and Khairy, Mahathir will yet again emerge a clear winner soon.

Everyone knows that for UMNO-BN to win the next election, they have to take the middle path and go for moderation. They can only do that if they can find a way to effectiviely neutralize the grand old man of politics. -MAIL BAG