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Friday, March 27, 2015

UMNO-DAP GOVT - IMPOSSIBLE! Only a new coalition govt OPEN to all parties from both sides can save Malaysia

UMNO-DAP GOVT - IMPOSSIBLE! Only a new coalition govt OPEN to all parties from both sides can save M'sia
The case for an Umno-DAP Federal Government has always been there, especially among moderates in the former party, ever since PAP was ushered out of the Federation along with Singapore in 1965. Sabah Progressive Party (Sapp) President Yong Teck Lee was not entirely off the mark, for once, when he warned that a beyond BN, beyond PR Umno-DAP Government, a la Lim Kit Siang, may yet emerge from the hudud affair.
If not an Umno-DAP coalition, then there’s a case for an Umno-PAS coalition — MUG or Malay Unity Government — as proposed by strategists in Umno. DAP elder statesman Lim Kit Siang, viewing MUG as a threat, refers to the strategists as “conspirators against the opposition alliance, Pakatan Rakyat”.
If politics is the art of the possible, as German Chancellor Bismarck once said, and if the late Lee Kuan Yew felt that “nothing was impossible”, an Umno-DAP coalition is a more viable option than Umno-PAS. Either way, Umno remains a player as the biggest party in Parliament if it can accept the fact that it’s ability to rely solely on Barisan Nasional (BN) is a losing battle.
The right thing to have done of course, in the wake of the Opposition winning the popular vote at 53 per cent in 2013, would have been to form a National Federal Government, not a coalition or unity government, with the number of seats in Parliament determining which side gets what by way of Cabinet and Government positions. It’s better for Umno/BN to take out an insurance policy in this manner and share power with the Opposition, and expect the favour to be repaid some day when the tables are turned, rather than risk losing it all one day. This is the point at which party politics ends and good government begins. Alas, it was not to be! It was “winner” take all.
Umno-DAP would be a multiracial coalition while the alternative arrangement would see DAP as a powerful enemy aligned against a weak so-called Malay Unity Government confined to the rural areas. As far as political animalism goes, there’s nothing like a weak Federal Government to maintain the sovereignty of the people.
DAP is unlikely to abandon Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) but can live with PAS as long the party gets rid of its President Abdul Hadi Awang whom they would no longer touch with even a ten-foot pole in the wake of the hudud affair.
After all that has been said and done between DAP and PAS, there’s no going back. Either Hadi goes or PAS will find itself out of the informal Pakatan Rakyat alliance one way or another. The question here is whether PAS leaders and members are willing to swim or sink with Hadi if the MUG idea doesn’t pan out or if they don’t want to be mugged by Umno.
Many people either don’t realize or don’t remember that there was no Pakatan on 8 March 2008, the 12th General Election, when the Opposition denied the ruling BN the coveted two-thirds majority in Parliament.
It’s possible for the Opposition to go back to the pre-13th General Election arrangement in Opposition politics, to fight another day, and still live to tell the tale if Pakatan falls apart or if PAS falls into the MUG trap being set for it by Umno.
To digress a little, PAS won’t make it easy for MUG to materialize. For one, the mainstream media has been demonizing PAS for so long that it’s a wonder that Umno strategists can feign collective amnesia and come up with the MUG concept. We can only put this down to the Machiavellian mindset that “there are no permanent friends and no permanent enemies in politics but only permanent interests”. If politics is not about the truth, then it can only be about what the people will believe. But is PAS the kind of party that doesn’t get carried away by its own bulls..t in politics?
MUG may be in Umno’s political interest but it will not be the same as things stand for PAS, allowing it to be on the same page as the former, unless several issues are first sorted out. Obviously, demonization will end under MUG, and so there’s no need to harp on this sore point with PAS.
What has to be settled is the question of oil royalty payments to the Kelantan and Terengganu Governments, the Kelantan Menteri Besar taking his rightful place as the Chairman of the State Security Committee, Federal development grants going straight to the Kelantan Government and a free-for-all in Malay seats in the peninsula and Muslim seats in Sabah or probably being divided 50:50 between Umno and PAS. The last is a tall order but the rationale is there.
This is the opportunity for PAS to press home every advantage in a political deal with Umno, failing which the Islamic party will have to simply get rid of Hadi and re-dedicate itself with even a greater vengeance to Pakatan Rakyat, come hell or high water, and the downfall of Umno which they see coming. Or, it can go it alone as in 2008.
However, there’s a big BUT in all this.
Anwar sees himself as a man of destiny and will keep his family in mind above all.
Umno would never abandon its allies in BN. It particularly needs Sabah and Sarawak but at the same time swears by MIC and MCA for more than sentimental reasons. These are historical ties. The three parties have come a long way together since 1957.
It’s not immediately clear whether PAS would want Umno to abandon its BN allies if MUG takes off. It was under the BN arrangement in 1978 that Umno mugged PAS out of the coalition. Once bitten, twice shy!
However, what is clear is that DAP would want to have nothing to do with the BN component parties if Lim Kit Siang accepts, and highly unlikely, an Umno-DAP Federal Government. Such a coalition would no doubt be disbanded for elections, in a free-for-all, and reconvened if both parties still need each other to form the Government.
Again, as stated earlier, DAP would not abandon PKR, the latter an anathema to Umno although its de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim has been incarcerated for at least 40 months after time off for good behaviour. Umno, however, would be pragmatic enough and open to the idea that PKR members join Umno en bloc but no Anwar Ibrahim. He may be let out however if he agrees to political exile. That’s like going back to the same idea that he earlier rejected outright. Anwar sees himself as a man of destiny and will keep his family in mind above all. He believes that the writing is on the wall for Umno and is willing to sacrifice himself. - FMT

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