Dr Mahathir blasting off – Lim Sue Goan

Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad has been harsh on Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak on the latter's sixth anniversary in office. Najib is no Tun Abdullah Badawi, and will therefore not likely to keep quiet, but the exhaustive fight between the duo is going to do Umno more harm than ever.

Najib has done plenty of things to please Dr Mahathir, including the Bumiputra economic empowerment plan soon after GE13, retaining the Sedition Act, getting down on the opposition, and even the largest ever Lima show in history and renewing contracts with F1 for three more years.

But all these have failed to tame down the former chief and it appears that nothing can be done to diffuse the differences between the two men.

This time, Dr Mahathir has come up with something really lethal, including the murder of Altantuya Shaariibuu, 1MDB debts, luxurious jet purchase, and the enormous wealth of Najib's stepson Riza Aziz.

For one thing, Dr Mahathir has got it really convincing. He predicts that if Najib continues to lead Umno, Barisan Nasional (BN) will be thrashed in the next general election. While Umno's continuous grip on power will depend very much on developments over the next three years, the crisis has nevertheless begun to show.

On the surface, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's conviction, DAP-PAS rift over hudud and possible collapse of Pakatan Rakyat (PR) may put Umno in a relatively comfortable position. This advantage is not going to last long, though. Once the opposition camp puts itself together again and the hudud issue is set aside, the situation might be reversed.

PR's problems can be resolved, including drawing a clear line between itself and PAS, but Umno's problems have gone to an extent as to lead the party towards conservatism with a turning back nowhere in sight.

Moreover, past experiences show that if the ruling parties have performed badly, support for the government would be thinned, irrespective of the opposition's performance. The government's performance now can only manage an "F".

Political developments over the past two years have nullified all of Najib's efforts in four years, including his 1Malaysia concept, government and economic transformation programme, legal reforms and moderation campaign, among others, all tailored to win back the faith of young, urban, moderate and Chinese voters.

BN's poor showing in GE13 does not mean voters will abandon the ruling coalition for good, but Umno's conservative tilt now will make this happen.

Najib made a dramatic U-turn in the Umno general assembly, declaring the retention of the Sedition Act in violation of his election pledge. More than 150 opposition politicians and social activists have been detained since this February, including The Malaysian Insider editors. This will only further disenchant urban voters.

Najib's inaction on the hudud issue has also confounded non-Muslim BN supporters.

The lukewarm attitude towards street rallies doesn't mean more and more people are supporting the BN now. This is something Umno has to come to terms with.

BN only managed 47% of popular votes in the last general election, majority from rural areas. After the elections, BN thought if it were to consolidate its grip on this 47%, it would be safe. So it would rather give up the rest of voters.

However, this 47% could get diluted over time, for instance, through natural deaths and through increase in the number of young voters and human migration.

We must never underestimate Mahathir's influences among rural and older voters. Thanks to his hard criticisms against Abdullah, BN lost Kedah and Perak.

In addition, economic issues could also affect the rural folks, in particular rising goods prices.

The government has intended to fill the treasury void with GST, but this new tax initiative is also going to impact rural folks who used to not paying taxes. While the government can release BR1M to cushion the impact, it must ensure it has the means to increase the subsidies and assistance year after year.

Given the 1MDB debt issue. depreciating ringgit, political instability, dampened domestic demands and absence of new strategies to lure foreign investments, it is by no means easy to revitalise the national economy.

Now that political and economic situations have gone from bad to worse, Dr Mahathir will wrought his influence among the grassroots if the PM chooses to stay mum.

To ordinary citizens, change of administration could be too remote, but people are more concerned about whether the country is moving ahead on the right track. – Sin Chew Daily