Middle East Wars & Violence Will Last At Least 10 More Years.

This is adapted  from Middle East sources.

• breakdown of States, people fall back on primordial attachments
• sectarianism, tribalism and Islamism
• witnessing failure of nation-state in Middle East
• Various forces seeking to fill vacuum amidst chaos
• including Shi’ite Iran, Sunni jihadist groups, Arab states
• much of underlying feud sectarian
• reverting back to families and tribes
• Sunni-Shi’ite reference best way to describe region
• “retribalization” of Middle East & conflict between Iran & Arabs
• expressed in breakdown of nation-state 
• reversion of communities to primordial tribe & sect
• to provide security state can no longer provide
• conflict subdued as long as Iran not predominant 
• Iran hegemony through Shia proxies – Syria, Iraq, Yemen & Lebanon 
• existential threat to Sunni predominance
• Shi’ites tools of Iranian hegemony 
• Wahhabi morphs into Islamic State
• US “flipped” from support of Sunni to support of Iran
• exacerbates existential danger. 
• US toppled Saddam & brought pro-Iranian Shia to power
• US could have toppled Syria but decided to reconcile 
• US willingness to change its position on Hezbollah
• signs of flip
• Islamic State’s caliphate important historical change 
• Islamic State & caliphate watershed event
• No regime – no matter how radical “dared declare itself caliphate".
• caliphate implies only one form of Islam 
• purge Islam of Shi’ites, Alawites, Christians, Jews, eliminate them
• chaos irreversible; no military or economic energy available to bring order
• world must prepare for chaos in Middle East for at least a decade
• war in Yemen, Saudi let sectarian genie out of bottle 
• sectarian dimension Saudis nurtured over years
• Saudi “logic of sectarian hatred”
• Clerics Mohd Arefe, Abdul Fawzan, Omar Nasser, Saad Ateeq received perks
• clerics "inciting against Houthis and Shi’ites, calling them rats"
• member of Saudi Human Rights Commission warned employers hiring Houthis 
• 'lest they poison your coffee' 
• not just religious leaders inciting against Shias 
• Sunni governor referred Shias as descendants of Abdullah Ibn Saba 
• apocryphal & derogatory figure blamed for Shi’ite Sunni split 
• Saudi history of hateful rhetoric whenever tension with Iran 
• Saudi extremists allowed to mouth off against Shi’ites.
• “sectarianism feeds Sunni terror groups that (also) threaten royal family” 

My comments : That last line is interesting :  "sectarianism feeds Sunni terror groups that (also) threaten royal family".  We say 'pedang makan tuan'.

It will will most definiely happen some day.  Those who live by the sword will die by the sword. Those who live by hatred will perish in their hatred.  The royal families in the Middle East will disappear someday.

We have seen that with just the partial withdrawal of the US, the Middle East is in chaos.  

Imagine if the US completely withdraws from the Middle East? They will all be fighting and killing each other non stop.

China is still dependent on Middle East oil. The US is not dependent on Arab oil anymore.  The US does not like China. It is also in the interests of the US to make it difficult for China to access oil easily in the Middle East. Middle East turmoil will help in that direction.

A new leadership will arise in the Middle East : Ni How Ma.