GBH IS VERY MUCH AZMIN’S PROBLEM IN SELANGOR

Umar Mukhtar

If the objective of GBH is to replace PAS as an Islamist party of choice for Malaysian Muslims, it will take at least five more PRUs. If it is just to be the ‘MCA’ of a DAP-sponsored coalition, especially in Selangor, that can be a reality as early as by PRU14. But at what cost to PKR?

Simply put, GBH will lose its pants to PAS in Malay-majority constituencies. That’s the arena between PAS and UMNO. Winning a seat or two doesn’t make it a mainstream party. Already Malays are calling it Gerakan Haprak Bangsa!

It can only hope to contest in mixed constituencies, where it can grovel for Chinese support at the charity of DAP. What about PKR? If it’s double-speak that sells, PKR is better and more experienced at it.

So maybe is DAP sponsoring GBH not really to neutralise PAS but perhaps to check PKR? If, before, contesting in mixed constituencies is a foregone conclusion to be PKR’s right, with the emergence of GBH, PKR may have to grovel first to be chosen by DAP over GBH. So is there a fit in the coalition dubbed Pakatan Rakyat 2.0? Especially in Selangor?

So GBH will have to earn its place as against PAS or else remain vassals forever. Meanwhile, what a convenient appendix for DAP to have vis-a-vis PKR. Keeping both beggars in check with Chinese votes, is the name of the game. The king-maker rules, even if Chinese voters are not a majority in Selangor. It’s not how smart DAP is, it’s how stupid these beggars are.

Take Selangor, for example. If, before, PKR did have some say, now it has to play obedient second-fiddle to DAP. With UMNO and PAS threatening and waiting on the sidelines, the more impotent PKR is, the more king-maker DAP will be. These enemies, UMNO and PAS, may never form a Unity Government but it’s not unconceivable that they will form a government al a Azmin, just to keep DAP out of the Selangor state government.

With all these uncertainties, DAP would want to strengthen its presence by contesting and winning even in Chinese mixed constituencies. Already  its victories in Chinese constituencies have maxed. Now with more split Malay votes, even its victories in Chinese mixed constituencies become more likely than ever.

What does all these mean to Azmin? A lot. It’s funny when he said that GBH is a PAS problem and not his. It is very much his problem. In fact, the progressives were problematic to PAS only when they held party positions. Now that they have lost everything this time round, PAS couldn’t be bothered with them, no matter what they threaten.

Azmin can probably hold together the sham of a government in Selangor till PRU14 and before the GBH party is formed. But soon he has to make up his mind. Chances are the scenario nearing PRU14 would be PKR agreeing to join PR 2.0 as instructed by Anwar Ibrahm, to prolong its life. Azmin has to kick PAS out. PKR will have to share all the mixed constituencies with GBH, winning a miserly 5 to 8 seats each.

DAP will contest up to 30 seats winning up to at 20 seats. PR 2.0 will form the state government with DAP as the supremo. Who will be the Menteri Besar? Azmin still, at the insistence of the Istana? But surely not without challenges from GBH and the two Malay DAP ADUNs forthcoming. Being MB from the smallest ADUN grouping is like having Nizar as MB Perak all over again.

All of the above will ring true unless, first, MCA/Gerakan wakes up from their present comatose state, and, second, UMNO Selangor doesn’t commit hara-kiri before hand, which it is prone to do. DAP is set to rule Selangor even though there are only 40% Chinese voters. Do the math, 87% of the 40% Chinese votes is easily bigger than the 50% Malay votes to be divided by the four Malay parties!

DAP will win at least 19 Chinese and Chinese mixed seats, PAS and UMNO will share the 25 Malay majority seats and PKR and GBH will share the balance 14 mixed seats courtesy of the Taiko. So how is it not Azmin’s problem? How long will GBH last? As a mosquito party prostituting itself to the highest bidder, forever. As a mainstream party, never.

For those who find talking politics of race so distasteful, sorry, it is the reality of Malaysian politics. Go find yourself another country to live in and be the first Asian-American or Asian-Australian or Asian-Canadian national leader of that so-called politically correct country but which is never colour-blind. It’s called hypocrisy. Of course you can take it if it’s from them!

Your aversion to politics that is racial may be caused by the fact that the majority race that you face is one you feel is inferior to your race. They even institutionalise race politics in Singapore by means of Group Representative Constituencies and the like. No Chinese complained!