Ambiga's proposed action plan

I've been both delighted with and amused by Ambiga Sreenevasan's action plan to save Malaysia which she sent, as reported by TMI, to all 222 parliamentarians.

Presumably Ah Jib Gor as the MP for Pekan would have received one as well, wakakaka. I wonder whether he exclaimed "WTF!"? Wakakaka.

I've been delighted because she has presented the action plan in a far more dignified manner than the headless-chook antics of my erstwhile idol. Sigh!

And I've been amused because I can see it appealing only to the 'converted', to wit, the Pakatan side of politics who will undoubtedly be overjoyed and overenthusiastic with her proposal.

Let's examine her proposed action plan as follows, that:

1. Najib takes a leave of absence
2. a "national government" be formed with MPs from both sides of the political divide
3. an election to be held within 18 months of the setting up of the new government.

Apart from the above 3 core elements of the proposed action plan, there are also proposals for the repeal of all laws that were repressive on media freedom, and for all reports into investigations that were of public interest, including the ongoing probe into 1MDB, to be made public.

Let's assume that these (let's call it secondary) requirements will come about once the 3 core elements of the proposed action plan have been successfully implemented, so we won't discuss these peripherals, important as they are and will be.

For me, as a DAP supporter (though am gradually becoming disenchanted with someone's headless-chook antics and those of another chook by the name of Chicken Little, wakakaka), it's a delightful plan. But for the other side, a BN bloke or sweetie, I doubt the plan will be welcomed - let me explain why, wakakaka.

Let's examine the 1st core element. OK, the M factor will welcome that for Ah Jib Gor to take leave of absence, essentially a final step down from his current prime ministerial post. Mahathir will no doubt be rapt, and Muhyiddin will be ecstatic but that doesn't mean they dare to adopt it openly as they will be kaput-ed in UMNO if they are seen to be playing footsie-tootsie with Ambiga or Pakatan, which has been why Mahathir had spurned LKS' politically amorous overtures in no uncertain terms.

But even if adopted under covert ops, wakakaka, would these two M's be premature in their happiness?

Let's say Ah Jib Gor agrees to step down, what's there to stop Ahmad Zahid, Hishamuddin Hussein and a senior UMNO pollie or even ambitious KJ from forming a new Troika, kick aside Muhyiddin, marginalize Mahathir & Son, and form a new ruling coterie. Then it'll be business as usual. Yessir, we must not assume Malaysians politics to be linear.

Indeed while we may even expect Muhyiddin to embrace the dethroning of Najib so as to become PM we can't simply expect him to automatically or necessarily accept Ambiga's "national government". If Moody becomes PM after Najib has been deposed, he'll still command sufficient numbers in BN to continue with majority rule without, if he wishes, any participation by non-BN parties, though of course PAS joining BN will be an added bonus. 

But why would Ah Jib Gor step down? Whooops, of course the action plan is supposed to entice the keen and enthusiastic butcurrent losers in UMNO into forcing Ah Jib Gor out, based on their self-interests, wakakaka.

The reality of UMNO party politics is that 'he rules who has the deepest pockets'. And I was informed that was the reason why someone in 1998 was forced by his own faction into taking precipitous but ill advised actions against his boss, wakakaka. In the immortal words of journalist Terence Netto, who in 2012 wrote of Khalid Ibrahim in Malaysiakini’s Selangor MB's pol sec Faekah at bay:

However, he has been slow to recognize as the PKR leader of a state regarded as a jewel in the federal crown that politics is also about providing opportunities, rewarding loyalties and managing expectations of the party faithful.

Oblivious of these aspects of his role as MB, he has courted trouble with sections of the party - mainly ex-Umno members - whose 10 years (1998-2008) in the political wilderness before the Selangor government was captured by a PKR-led opposition has had them ravening for whatever rewards were to be had.

Though Netto was writing about PKR members, the same succinct observations (in bold highlights), especially about 'ravening' (what a delightful wolf-ish word, wakakaka), can be equally applied to UMNO members as well. After all there's not much difference between UMNO and PKR mentality. And as I wrote above, 'twas for the same reason someone in 1998 was forced by his own faction into taking precipitous but ill advised actions against his boss, wakakaka.

'Ravening', wakakaka.

Oh, I hope you didn't imagine for one instant that the 1998 incident was for the national good or national security? Mind you, I know of one visitor to my blog who thinks so, wakakaka. To him, anything AI did must be for the national good, like the Selangor rancid satay bull. 

Anyway, talking about deep pockets, I believe Najib has the support of, last I heard, 161 out of 190 UMNO divisions. He might have lost quite a few since he sacked Muhyiddin, but if he continues to have deep pockets and continues also to control those UMNO 'trustees' who hold treasure charts with X's marked somewhere on them, he should be able to hang on to their financially-motivated loyalty, wakakaka. Remember Mahathir told us that Melayu mudah lupa, which I presume applies also to Johor UMNO members.

Thus I don't believe Ah Jib Gor can be easily forced out. So far, the person most capable and most likely to be able to kick him out, namely, Mahathir, hasn't shown much achievement in this respect. The $$$ is an effective stabilising anchor for UMNO's admiral, wakakaka.  Johor MB has just described him as the one & only admiral for the UMNO ship, perhaps as a late mollifying balm to the man he had earlier been 'forced' to offend, maybe on the order of "someone", wakakaka.

Mahathir's only resort seems to be to continue undermining Najib, even unto destroying UMNO itself. Let's see whether this will have further effect?

The 2nd core element of Ambiga's proposed action plan to save Malaysia is, to repeat dot-point above, to form a "national government" with MPs from both sides of the political divide.

OK, what do you think, firstly as a DAP supporter, then as a BN (particularly an UMNO) supporter.

Currently BN holds 132 parliamentary seats to (let's pretend Pakatan still exists so I can term the DAP, PAS, PKR and GHB collectively under one title) Pakatan's 84. These are the latest August 2015 figures.

In May 2013 they were 133 vs 89. A few changes occurred since - one example being the loss of DAP's Teluk Intan to Gerakan. But the changes haven't alter the competing figures much, except to make BN slightly stronger.

So it's now 132 vs 84, where a bloc needs only 112 to form majority government. So why the f* would BN agree to form a "national government" from both sides of politics? In fact BN can afford to lose as many as 20 defectors and still continue to rule.

Sad to say, Ambiga's proposal is not practical as it fails to consider the 4 A's of Malaysian politics, namely Animosity, Anxiety (or Apprehension), Avarice and (the absence of) Altruism.

Animosity - BN hates Pakatan as much as Pakatan hates BN. Yes, there may be the occasional crossovers (PAS a future potential) and defections (eg, Hee, Kulim Wonder and several from PKR) but the animosity between the two sides of politics has been shown/known to be feral, immature and invincible. Other than the exceptional few, there is not even "off-duty" friendliness. Bipartisanship is hardly heard of, where many in Malaysia don't even understand what it means, nor expect such a political stand.

And over-layering the innate deep animosity would be the BN's perception of "Why the f* should we share rule of the nation when we alone have the numbers to do so?"

Anxiety (Apprehension) - BN fears Pakatan coming into power, as voiced not too long ago quite unashamedly by Mahathir (as a warning to Najib before the beginning of 1MDB attacks). I needn't go into this any deeper but suffice to say why would BN share national rule which may see control of the government eventually slip from their hands and bring all the woes unto them, especially retributions?

Avarice? Let's not even go there.

Altruism or rather its absence of - really, you got to be joking to consider such a value from either side of politics. But alas, the foundation stones of Ambiga's action plan are unfortunately large chunks of altruism, so you can work out yourself the likely success of her proposal.

Ambiga Sreenevasan is an honourable person and one of my idols (I've recently lost respect for another previous idol, wakakaka) but I somehow feel she's a wee naive despite her amazing qualifications, experience, and character. Maybe she still believes in fairy godmothers to propose such an action plan which demands the deepest reserves of (non-existent) altruistic feelings from the BN side of politics, but which favours mainly Pakatan who has nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Thus it's hardly surprising that many in BN have accused her of plotting with Pakatan to overthrow the BN government because that's how her proposed action plan would appear to them, though I believe she has been sincere and altruistic in her proposal. Note she can be altruistic because she's NOT a politician, wakakaka.

And thus we arrive at her 3rd core element, namely, to have an election to be held within 18 months of the setting up of the new government. C'mon my dear Ambiga, why would BN want to do that when it currently holds 132 seats in Parliament and can go on ruling for another 3 years, until 2018?