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Saturday, August 15, 2015

DR M CAMP SAYS IT: One of these 3 men will be the new PM - is it Ku Li, Muhyiddin or Zahid

DR M CAMP SAYS IT: One of these 3 men will be the new PM -  is it Ku Li, Muhyiddin or Zahid
ONE thing is sure - the country needs a change of Leader.
What is less sure is who will it be. Three possibilities are being mentioned: the sacked former Deputy Prime Minister (Tan Sri) Muhyiddin Yassin, his replacement (Datuk Seri) Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and the former Finance Minister, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah aka Ku Li.
Depending on which source you get your information and who is making the analysis, the front-runner keeps changing.
According to Pak Belalang (the protagonist in the P. Ramlee movie “Nujum Pak Belalang”), if the Prime Minister (Datuk Seri) Mohd Najib Abdul Razak has his way, he would want Ahmad Zahid to be his successor.
Having sacked Muhyiddin for criticising him and for supporting the investigations into the 1MDB affairs, surely the Prime Minister would not want Muhyiddin to succeed him. Allowing Muhyiddin to become PM is as good as signing his own death warrant.
Ahmad Zahid looks like a safer bet. He has been Mohd Najib’s ally for a long time and is the strongest and the most popular of the three elected Umno vice-presidents.
The second elected VP, (Datuk Seri) Shafie Apdal of Sabah had been done away with. He was dropped from the Cabinet together with Muhyiddin. The third VP is Mohd Najib’s own cousin, (Datuk Seri) Hishammuddin Hussien, who was the front-runner before the 1MDB scandal surfaced.
In recent months, Hishammudin has adopted a more neutral stance towards his cousin by urging for an open and transparent investigation into the 1MDB affairs. That automatically makes him a less reliable. Still he is being touted as the DPM candidate should Ahmad Zahid gets promoted.
The problem is how would Ahmad Zahid overcome the question of having Muhyiddin at the top of him in the Umno hierarchy? Muhyiddin is Deputy President and his image as the defender of the party and the voice of the ordinary rakyat has catapulted following his July 28 sacking. He now enjoys considerable sympathy from Umno members and Malaysians in general.
Picture tells a thousand words: Sultan Ibrahim Johor, Johor MB, Zahid and Muhyiddin
For Ahmad Zahid, Muhyiddin is a necessary ally. Little wonder that when the two of them were photographed laughing away in the presence of the Sultan of Johor on Aug 11 the rumour mill went into overdrive.
No less significant is the emergence of the Johor Sultanate as a critic of the PM and the royal champion of the rakyat, which gives rise to yet another set of analyses. They concern the behind-the-scene involvement of some Malay rulers in seeking solution to the country’s deepening problems.
The Ku Li Solution
Then there is what could be described as the Ku Li’s solution. The veteran Umno leader and the MP for Gua Musang could very well be ahead in race to replace Mohd Najib.
Ku Li and Najib: Not a handover letter yet
The 78-year old former Finance Minister and Umno VP, who, ironically, is also Mohd Najib’s earliest mentor (in Petronas), has been actively putting together a coalition of MPs from both sides of House with the hope of democratically ousting him.
If he succeeds, he stands out as the most likely successor to Mohd Najib and, would introduce a whole new equation to contemporary Malaysian politics i.e the formation of a national unity government in which Umno could be in the minority.
However, in spite of widespread rumours that Ku Li has received the blessing of the former PM (and his nemesis) (Tun) Dr Mahathir Mohamad, he faces an uphill task to coax at least half of the 222 members of the Dewan Rakyat (the House of Representatives) to join him.
The opposition is badly fractured following the ouster of the non-religious faction from PAS. The clerical PAS may not be inclined to join Ku Li. But the PAS professionals who now called themselves Gerakan Harapan Baru (New Hope Movement) may break rank and side with the Kelantan prince. The DAP and PKR are likely to be amenable to the idea of a unity government under Ku Li provided one of their members is made the DPM.
Still Ku Li would not have enough members to topple the PM unless he is able to get the support of upward of 45 BN members. If PAS members are not with him, he would need more BN defectors. And could not rely on mere promises. He has to get a legally valid assurance from each of them.
From the governing point of view, Ku Li is perhaps the best candidate to rescue the economy because, despite his shortcomings and missteps in the past, he is highly experienced and knowledgeable in economic matters. More than anything else it is the economy that needs mending and Ku Li beats all other contenders in that aspect.
In recent months, Dr Mahathir, Ku Li and another former Finance Minister, (Tun) Daim Zainuddin, appeared to have set aside their differences and are having regular conversations about politics and the economy.
FOOTNOTE: Met (Tun) Musa Hitam again Friday (at Sime Darby’s open house). He told me (in front of one or two staunchest supporters of the PM) that plot has changed yet again. Now the old fox is having the upper hand over the chicken.

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