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Sunday, August 9, 2015

Seething and Sweating in PM’s Camp

Image result for Najib and economy

A Kadir Jasin

RUNNING side by side in the today’s Sunday Star, separated only by a Giant supermarket advertisement, are two very interesting articles.

On page 14 was a report headlined “Separate but mutually prospering” written by Singapore’s Prime Minister, Lee Hsien Loong. He was espousing the virtues of Singapore-Malaysia relationship. (Read here)

On Page 17 was (Datuk Seri) Wong Chun Wai’s regular column “On the beat” in which he spoke of the need to focus on the economy. (Read here)

Both persons appear to be placing their hope on the same person – the Prime Minister of Malaysia, (Datuk Seri) Mohd Najib Abdul Razak. But they could be wishing against hope.

Imbedded in PM Lee’s writing is the hope that the “mutually prospering” 50-year old Singapore-Malaysia relationship would continue long into the future. He credited Mohd Najib and Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi for bringing the two countries closer together.

Lee credited Mohd Najib with improved relations
As for Chun Wai’s plea “to turn our attention back to money matters” I think we should all take it seriously. He is not just a writer like me, but he is also a businessman. He runs the Star Media Group as its group managing director and chief executive officer.

Things Are Complicated

Unfortunately for PM Lee, Chun Wai and for all of us, things are a lot more complex and complicated than mere hopes and wishes. Consider the following:

1. Mohd Najib is too preoccupied with political survival that he shows neither the interest nor the capacity to solve the country’s dire economic situation.

2. Hardly any member of the cabinet, with the exception of (Datuk Seri) Abdul Wahid Omar, says anything comforting about the economy lately. Even Abdul Wahid could only say that the ringgit’s current decline was not as bad as in 1997/98.

3. There is no sign of any affective steps to check the ringgit’s downhill slide apart from what appears to be an ineffective Bank Negara interference that saw its external reserves falling by over US$40 billion to under US$100 billion - the first time in five years.

4. The ringgit suffers a double whammy – the weak external factors and even weaker domestic fundamentals. The contagion Sang Kelembai effects of 1MDB, the allegations of corruption against the PM and the undermining of key institutions by the PM’s spin-doctors compound the ringgit’s problem, making it the worse performing Asian currency. The ringgit is falling dangerously close to RM4 to a dollar.

5. The capital flight is in full swing. For 14 consecutive weeks until last week, foreign capital had been flowing out of Bursa Malaysia. So far this year, foreign investors had withdrawn an estimated RM11.7 billion from the Bursa compared to RM6.9 billion for the whole of last year.

6. In their attempts to prop up Mohd Najib, his supporters are destroying the very institutions that offer a semblance of respect and credibility. They are burning the house to smoke out the mosquitoes.

Mohd Najib vs the People

1.Mohd Najib’s focus is on political survival and fending off a possible criminal charge over the transfer of funds from SRC International, a Finance Ministry company, to his personal account.

2. Economic issues are important to him but he appears to have lost the credibility and moral standing to fix them. The double whammy is he is both the PM and Finance Minister.

3. This is the danger that I have been talking about since the time when Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad temporarily took over the Finance Ministry in early 1990’s upon the resignation of Tun Daim Zainuddin. It has been my mantra since then that PM should not double as Finance Minister.

5. Mohd Najib has fenced himself in. From an inclusive Prime Minister for all, he has become exclusive to 300-odd Umno heads, the mainstream media and the paid bloggers.

6. The 300 or so Umno leaders, comprising Supreme Council members, state liaison chairmen and divisional chiefs, are the people who determine whether he stays or goes.

7. For now, the majority of them are either loyal or beholden to him. He gave them power and money and, in some probable instances, he knows their dirty little secrets. But there are signs of unease among many of them. Their fear and, possibly, conscience are causing them to seethe and sweat.

8. The country’s problems and the well being of the rakyat will only see hope of being attended to in a credible manner if Putrajaya enjoys the trust of the key players – the investors and consumers.

9. As it now stands, even simple consumers do not have the confidence to spend.

10. Finally, all political parties should look beyond their existing leaders – Mohd Najib, (Datuk Seri) Anwar Ibrahim, Lim Kit Siang and (Datuk Seri) Abdul Hadi Awang. Malaysians deserve better leaders and a brighter future.

Wallahuaklam.

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