THE PLANNING IS CENTRED ON THE VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE

I can almost visualise Najib sitting in his office wringing his hands and chuckling while he says, “Vote of no confidence? Bring in on, baby! Let me show you how politics should be played.” Sigh…I do wish I was the fly on the wall in Najib’s office.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Yesterday, one ‘famous’ Mufti said it is un-Islamic to topple the government or government leaders. Today, another equally ‘famous’ Mufti said it is not wrong to topple the government or government leaders.

Basically, this demonstrates the state of affairs of Islam today. Islamic edicts, teachings and beliefs are based purely on opinions. They may fall back on the Qur’an, Hadith or Sunnah, but invariably it all boils down to how each scholar interprets what he ‘sees’.

The fact that much of the ‘holy books’ of the Abrahamic faiths may be in parables or are allegorical make matters even worse. You may view things one way but someone else may view it another way. But then you always consider your view the right view and the views of others as wrong.

Who gave you the monopoly on truth? That is basically the issue here.

Anyway, today’s article is not about theology or religious doctrine (so please don’t start posting verses of the Qur’an and whatnot because I will just delete them). I just wanted to comment in passing the saga of the two Muftis and how both have contradicted one another. Whether that means we cannot always accept the edicts of a Mufti as fact or truth is something you will have to figure out for yourself.

The issue I wish to raise is: what represents fact and truth and what is the opposite of all that? Take the issue of the RM2.6 billion that was banked into Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak’s personal bank account as one example.

Those opposed to Najib allege that the money was stolen from 1MDB and probably even the pensions fund. And if that money was not stolen from 1MDB and/or the pensions fund then an explanation must be given as to where the money came from.

If Najib or the government is not able to explain where the money came from then we must assume that the money was stolen. If the money was not stolen then give an explanation.

Then Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi (and some others as well) explained where the money came from, as what Najib’s critics demanded. But they refuse to accept this explanation. They do not believe the explanation and say that the story is a lie.

So there you have it. Explain where the money came from. And if you cannot explain where it came from then we will assume you stole the money. But when they do explain, the explanation is rejected and is called a lie.

This is an argument that Najib cannot win. Basically, people are already convinced that a crime has been committed. And even if you explain that no crime has been committed they are not going to believe that. They have made up their mind and nothing is going to change what they believe. The only thing they want is for Najib to be ousted and, if possible, arrested and put in jail as well.

So they tried all sorts of ways to oust Najib and to get him arrested as well if possible. This was supposed to have happened around the end of July. Whether the allegations are true or false does not matter. Get Najib first (like they did Anwar Ibrahim in 1998) and then worry about the truth later.

Of course, later, in 2004, the Federal Court released Anwar on grounds that the prosecution had failed to prove his guilt. But the damage had been done. Anwar had already spent six years in jail and his chances of replacing Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad as Prime Minister was now merely a pie in the sky.

And that was what was supposed to have happened to Najib had he not pre-empted the move against him two days before they made their move.

So now, as Dr Mahathir said, the only way to oust Najib would be through a vote of no confidence in Parliament. Getting him arrested and put in jail without bail while he fights a legal battle over the next year or two is no longer possible. They have to get at least 112 Members of Parliament from both sides of the political fence to kick him out and then probably kick him into jail on whatever charges they can conjure.

Lim Kit Siang says they are working on 35 Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament. Rafizi Ramli says they are working on 25. Rafizi’s 25 added to the 87 from the opposition would make it ngam-ngam, which is a bit risky. Kit Siang’s 35 would give them a better margin.

But how much is it going to cost them? Last take was it would cost RM5 million per Member of Parliament. Now, RM5 million may not be enough. They are getting quite desperate and if they want this to happen they may have to up the amount to RM10 million or more. Some say if Hee Yit Foong of DAP was paid RM25 million just to bring down the Perak state government, why should they accept less than that figure?

When I was told that the budget to bring down Najib is RM2 billion I thought that it sounded a bit far-fetched. But then at RM5 million per Member of Parliament that would already come to RM560 million. And if it were upped to RM15 million per Member of Parliament it would total RM1.68 billion. So maybe RM2 billion is not really a big deal after all.

After talking so much about the vote of no confidence that they are going to pass in Parliament they cannot now not do that. If nothing happens they would lose face (just like the ‘16 September’ drama in 2008 that shattered Anwar Ibrahim’s reputation for good). Come hell or high water they must push for the vote of no confidence. After everything that has happened since July that is the only weapon left for them to use.

And Najib knows this. His detractors think that Najib is scared shit and is shivering in his pants about the pending vote of no confidence. But Najib is cool. He knows his enemies have no choice but to push for the vote of no confidence. If they do not then they will suffer a great shame or kemaluan besar. And Dr Mahathir is not one to accept shame lying down.

Najib’s strategy is instead of trying to avoid or stop the attempt to push for a vote of no confidence against him he will exploit that move to his advantage. Once they successfully pass a vote of no confidence he will go before His Majesty the Agong and ask that Parliament be dissolved. The state governments would not be affected, they would remain.

According to the Federal Constitution, the Agong must act on the advise of the Prime Minister. So the Agong will consent to the dissolution of Parliament and federal elections can be held in all the 222 parliamentary constituencies.

Najib will then use this election to do some spring-cleaning and purge the party of those who are against him. Of course, none of his detractors will be given a seat to contest. So that will end their political career.

The Boffin Boys in Najib’s circle are already planning the next federal election. The plan is to increase Umno’s seats from the current 88 to 100-110. And they have an idea on how that can be done. Without revealing too much details, let me just say that the plan is not based on traditional seats but winnability. Those in the game will know what I am talking about.

Of course, the opposition will still win some seats. That is unavoidable. But it will not be more than 90 seats. At best it will be between 80 and 90. And with PAS and PKR both badly divided, it could actually even be less than 80 seats.

The difference will come from Sabah and Sarawak. And I strongly believe that the two big issues of unhappiness from Sabah and Sarawak — the 5% oil royalty and the 18/20 Point Agreements cum autonomy — will be addressed in the run-up to the election. And with that Sabah and Sarawak will be in the bag.

This reminds me of 1st September 1998 when Dr Mahathir wrenched victory from the jaws of defeat. I do believe Najib is taking Dr Mahathir’s example and is going to also wrench victory from what many view as the jaws of defeat.

I can almost visualise Najib sitting in his office wringing his hands and chuckling while he says, “Vote of no confidence? Bring in on, baby! Let me show you how politics should be played.” Sigh…I do wish I was the fly on the wall in Najib’s office.