PAS splinter party Amanah is poised to win 20 of the 27 parliamentary seats it will contest in the 14th general election, with Kota Raja in Selangor and Kota Baru in Kelantan a sure bet, said a party source.
Amanah was nearly done with its analysis of all the 27 seats, which the new party rated according to its chances of victory.
The party rated its chances from A+ to D, the source said.
An “almost sure-win” seat is rated A+, while winnable seats are rated B+ and B. Those rated C and D are hard to win seats.
“From there, we have at least six A+ seats with Kota Raja and Kota Baru being the top two,” the source told The Malaysian Insight, adding that 16 seats are graded B and five graded C and D.
However, apart from naming the sure bets, the source refused to reveal how the party rated its chances in the remaining constituencies.
Amanah candidates will contest 27 parliamentary seats under a seat arrangement the party reached with its partners in the Pakatan Harapan pact – Bersatu, PKR and DAP.
Bersatu will contest in 52 seats, PKR (51) and DAP (35).
Amanah deputy president Salahuddin Ayub said the party expected to win 20 seats but admitted it will be a tough task.
The Amanah machinery has been told to double its efforts and work with the PH machinery to meet the target, he said.
“By our calculations, our worst-case scenario is winning only six parliamentary seats,” the two-term Kubang Kerian MP said.
Salahuddin will contest in his home state of Johor.
In the last elections, he contested the Pulai seat and lost to Deputy Home Minister Nur Jazlan Mohamed, who retained the seat by 3,226 votes.
Nur Jazlan polled 43,751 while Salahuddin picked up 40,525 votes.
Research outfit Invoke’s worst forecast for the next polls is that PH will win only 25% Malay, 65% Chinese and 30% Indian support.
But Amanah’s confidence is not far from what is predicted by political social media research outfit Politweet in its recent election forecast for Pakatan Harapan (PH) in Peninsular Malaysia (GE14) study.
Amanah might be able to take 18 seats, compared with Bersatu’s six, it said.
Bersatu is chaired by former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad and counts several former big wigs among its ranks. Both Bersatu and Amanah are going into the polls for the first time.
Their allies PKR and DAP are expected to win 28 and 31 seats respectively.
However, based on the voting pattern from the last general election in 2013, PH won’t be able to take Putrajaya this time.
If PH can improve on its performance by two points in the 14th general election, Amanah can win 19 seats. With five points, it could win 22.
PH can only take Putrajaya with an increase of at least five points.
In the 2013 polls, PAS candidate Dr Siti Mariah Mahmud won Kota Raja for the second time with a larger majority of 29,395 votes compared with 20,751 in the 2008 polls.
The main reason was the mixed-race composition in the parliamentary constituency. Kota Raja is 44% Malay, Indian (29%) and Chinese (25%).
During the Selangor Amanah convention last year, state chief Izham Hashim said he would give a seat in Selangor to party president Mohamad Sabu.
It was rumoured then that Mohamad, who is better known as Mat Sabu, would contest in Kota Raja.
Meanwhile, Kelantan Amanah chief Wan Abdul Rahim Abdullah previously proposed that the state PH chairman Husam Musa contest in Kota Baru.
This was endorsed by Mat Sabu during a speech to launch the Amanah election machinery in the Bunut Payong state seat in Kota Baru.
– https://www.themalaysianinsight.com
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