MAHATHIR’S BLACK SWAN VS NAJIB’S EMERGENCY RULE: ARCH FOES WATCH EACH OTHER’S EVERY MOVE AS GE14 ARRIVES

THE year was 1990. The Opposition coalition led by Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah was seemingly cruising to a victory over Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s Barisan Nasional in the general election.

Malaysia was apparently ripe for change.

Two years earlier, Umno saw a split after Razaleigh had almost defeated Dr Mahathir for the president’s post. Razaleigh then formed Semangat 46, which mostly consisted of Umno politicians from Team B, which was against Dr Mahathir.

Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), which ruled Sabah, pulled out of Barisan on the eve of the election and joined the opposition front of Semangat 46, PAS and DAP. Prime Minister Dr Mahathir called PBS president Tan Sri Joseph Pairin Kitingan’s move “a stab in the back”.

The rebel alliance was set to defeat the empire. However, Dr Mahathir had something up his sleeve.

“In addition to Mahathir’s propaganda was his unrelenting onslaught on the Semangat 46 president Razaleigh, alleging he had given in to the so-called Christian PBS by sacrificing Malay political supremacy,” wrote In-Won Hwang in his book Personalized Politics: The Malaysian State Under Mahathir.

“The malicious and deliberate allegations reached a peak when Razaleigh visited Sabah on Oct 18.

From the time of his visit to Sabah until polling day, Razaleigh was slandered in most major newspapers for wearing traditional Kadazan headgear (sigah), which allegedly had a Christian cross on it,” he wrote.

“Mainstream media coverage, including TV3, was slanted in a way as to make the ethnic Kadazan headgear appear to have a Christian cross on it, thus leading the Malay-Muslims to a general belief that Razaleigh’s Semangat 46 was selling out Malay interest as well as the Islamic faith in order to win the 1990 general election.”

The book continued: “Although the Archbishop Emeritus of the Catholic Church issued a press statement denying any connection between the ethnic Kadazan headgear and Christianity, and the statement was carried only in the Chinese press, no Malay daily reported it.”

“With the Umno (Baru)-tied mass media providing such coverage, the damage was done and the suspicion surrounding Razaleigh was enough to create insecurity among the Malays,” Hwang wrote.

As a result of the Kadazan headgear controversy and other factors, the rebellion failed.

During a chat in a hotel lounge in Kuala Lumpur, a political operative reminded me of a “black swan” that can be a game changer in an election. He also warned that there could be black swans in the coming election.

The black swan theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, whose work focuses on problems of randomness, probability and uncertainty.

“The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalised after the fact with the benefit of hindsight,” according to Wiki­pedia.

The political operative said there was a possibility that the Opposition, in order to tip the balance in GE14, might have a black swan plan.

“What if a certain senior leader of the Opposition suddenly falls sick and on his deathbed, he declares a wasiat (a will) to the public? How do you think the public will react?” he said.

“Interesting theory,” I said.

“Malaysians will be emotionally charged if that happens. It might be an out-of-the-box kind of political plot. But Barisan Nasional too can also have its own black swans.”

He agreed.

That night I bought Taleb’s The Black Swan. I read the book to find out whether the black swan theory applies in this case.

After reading the book, I messaged the political operative: “I don’t think the black swan theory applies to the wasiat plot.”

I also searched online for similar emotionally charged political incidents in Malaysia. Two popped up.

In 2011, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s driver alleged a murder attempt on the PKR leader after discovering that the brakes of the Mercedes-Benz he was driving had been tampered with.

In 2012, PKR president Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail’s bodyguard was allegedly injected with an unknown substance into his left palm when he was making way for her to go on stage at a ceramah.

On Tuesday night, during a chat with a political analyst and a businessman, I brought up the wasiat scenario. Both disagreed that it was a black swan event as the scenario was expected (as opposed to an event that comes as a surprise).

“Three months ago, my team were thinking of how the Opposition can avoid losing GE14 and we thought of that scenario,” said the political analyst.

“So, what you are saying is if it happens, it is not a black swan as it is not a surprise as your team has already thought of it,” I said.

“Yes,” he said.

“So what theory is it then if it happens?” I said.

“Maybe (a) tipping point,” he said.

The political analyst was referring to Malcolm Gladwell’s book, The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make A Big Difference.

Gladwell defined a tipping point as “the moment of critical mass, the threshold, the boiling point”.

“Don’t think it is the tipping point theory. A tipping point in the context of Malaysian politics will be GST (Goods and Services Tax) and not wasiat,” I said.

In the end, we agreed that if the wasiat scenario indeed happens, it will be a game changer like the Kadazan headgear controversy.

Prepare for mind games in GE14.

– ANN